Mike Rogero

How do macro factors drive crypto markets? From Gemini, a report covers the framework and metrics to consider this relationship

10

David Yi (Ethos VC) a.k.a "The VC who hates most VCs" on his Personal Journey and Perspective on Growth:  "As an eight-time founder with two exits, I've seen the landscape from multiple angles. It's not about being a hero but about building a team, learning, and evolving. Whether it's in education or tech, the journey is about adapting and finding your path, not just in Korea but globally." https://lnkd.in/gVduV3MQ #startupswithseoul Chang (CK) Kim

17

The success of a Fund boils down to DPI (distributions back to LPs in relation to how much capital was deployed). The industry often gets infatuated with TVPI, which accounts for paper gains. However, these numbers are frequently not worth the paper they are printed on. Knowing when to stick or twist is always a challenge, so I favor a balanced approach: the third-third-third strategy. Sell a third of the investment at the first opportunity. Gradually sell the second third. Hold onto the final third for potential upside. Even this model needs adjustments based on market conditions, requiring a mix of aggressive selling or patience. The real issue for LPs is the industry's recent obsession with maximizing TVPI without enough attention to DPI. This can lead to portfolio imbalances and potentially disappointing (or zero) cash returns. 🎙 Listen to my full episode of Fintech Leaders with good friend Miguel Armaza for more on data as the new gold, secrets behind successful VCs, and the importance of founder-market fit: Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3KitB4b Apple: https://apple.co/4bXmmuC Youtube: https://bit.ly/3Vh4HIz

37

1 Comment

Macro Wednesday's: S&P rose +97bps to 5751 (+21% YTD), while Nvidia gained another +4%, approaching its all-time high, with the Hon Hai CEO citing “crazy” demand for Blackwell. MegaCap Tech outperformed at +2% versus Non-Profitable Tech, which edged up +0.2% (+46% vs. -10% YTD). Interest rates stayed steady, with US/Bund at 4.01%/2.24%. Chinese local stocks fell by -4%, and Bitcoin reached $62.2k. Key events include the FOMC minutes release today, US inflation data tomorrow, and monitoring of Hurricane Milton, a Category 5 storm. JPMorgan is set to kick off the US earnings season on Friday. US Inflation: Analysts estimate a 0.28% increase in September’s core CPI, which would keep the year-over-year rate stable at 3.2%. This estimate accounts for higher used car prices (+1.0%), a further rise in airfares (+0.5%), and continued firmness in car insurance (+0.7%). A slight decrease in new car prices (-0.1%) and a moderation in shelter costs (OER +0.35%, primary rent +0.31%) are also anticipated. AI Developments: AI continues to advance rapidly, with recent innovations from major tech companies. Google’s ‘NotebookLLM’ allows users to upload links or PDFs and receive detailed summaries through the Gemini LLM. Recently added features include audio generation, enabling users to convert PDFs into podcasts. Meta has introduced a video generator that offers more precise control over visual outputs. US Elections: Financial analysis suggests that Trump’s proposed policies could increase U.S. debt by $4 trillion more than those of Harris. Agility Robotics: The company unveiled its new ‘RoboFab’ facility and is conducting tests in Amazon warehouses. Agility is part of a group of robotics companies that are combining advanced battery technology, motors, and sensors with software to optimize robots for human-centric environments. Starlink: The direct-to-cell satellite service received temporary approval from the FCC for areas affected by Hurricane Milton. China Market Update: China has been upgraded to overweight following recent coordinated policy actions aimed at stimulating the economy. The sentiment among some analysts is that current conditions present a compelling opportunity for investing in Chinese equities. US Earnings Outlook: Updated estimates for 2025 earnings project a 5% sales growth, in line with nominal GDP growth (previously 4%). The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for modest margin expansion, with price increases outpacing input costs. Projections now include a 78 basis point net margin expansion in 2025, up from 24 basis points previously. Expectations for the Information Technology sector have been adjusted upward due to a recovery in the semiconductor cycle and continued strength in mega-cap tech. Tesla: A preview of Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi event on Thursday suggests the possibility of unveiling a prototype for a new vehicle concept, marking the company’s first since the announcement of the Cybertruck in November 2019.

9

Sanctuary AI ranks 4th globally for patent holdings on general-purpose #robotics technology and dexterous manipulation technology, only behind NVIDIA, Alphabet and Hyundai. In this Bloomberg Tech Disruptors podcast, co-founder and CTPO, Olivia Norton, discusses how her company is leading the charge, despite being an emerging #startup in a field of tech giants. A great listen for anyone interested in learning how the future of #humanoid robotics is taking shape today! #ThriveVentureFund #FutureIsNow BDC BDC Capital (Canada)

26

2 Comments

When entrepreneurs build a startup, it is often their speed and momentum that gives them a shot at competing with the tech behemoths. This is true of countries as well. I was recently in Thailand, where I was delighted to see tremendous momentum building in AI (and sip the best Thai ice tea I’ve ever tasted). Even though Thailand is not as advanced in AI technology or applications as leading tech countries, the enthusiasm for building AI throughout government, corporations, and academia was thrilling. I came away heartened that AI’s benefits will be spread among many countries and convinced that one's level of AI development right now matters less than your momentum toward increasing it. Seeing the momentum behind AI in Thailand — where the per capita GDP is around one fifth that of Japan, and one tenth that of the United States — left me feeling that any country, company, or person has a shot at doing meaningful work in the field. While advanced economies such as the U.S. and China are still in the lead, generative AI has made the playing field more level. Foundation models, especially those with open weights, are significantly lowering the barriers to building meaningful AI projects. In Thailand, a lot of people I met weren’t just talking about AI, they were rolling up their sleeves and building. That buys a nation a lot more momentum than just talk. I met with Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and his Ministers of Higher Education and Education (primary/secondary) along with many staffers. It was delightful to hear the PM speak of his enthusiasm for AI. The ministers discussed how to (i) provide AI training and (ii) use AI to improve education in a variety of subjects. Happily, the focus was on creating value while thinking through realistic risks like AI’s potential to proliferate misinformation, and not a single person asked me about whether AI will lead to human extinction! I also met with many business leaders and enjoyed seeing a rapid pace of experimentation with AI. KBTG, an affiliate of the country’s leading digital bank KBank, is working on a financial chatbot advisor, AI-based identity verification for anti-fraud, AI for auto insurance, and a Thai-language financial large language model. These features are growing mobile banking and increasing financial access. Many business leaders in other sectors, too, have asked their teams to run experiments. There are many AI applications yet to be built in industrial sectors, tourism, trade, and more! (KBTG is an investor in AI Fund, which I lead.) I often visit universities in both developed and developing economies, and I’ve been surprised to see that universities in developing economies sometimes adopt AI faster. At Chulalongkorn University (known as Chula), I met with the University President Wilert Puriwat and Director of Chula AI Professor Proadpran Punyabukkana. [Reached length limit; Full text: https://lnkd.in/g8BJhWau ]

1,667

79 Comments

Potential charges Haliey Welch could face if SEC probes HAWK launch. Crypto lawyers said Haliey Welch and her team could face charges following the launch of her memecoin. On Dec. 4, Welch launched the HAWK memecoin, which briefly surged to a peak value of $490 million before plummeting over 90% to $30 million in a few hours. The launch was marred by allegations of insider trading, as well as having a supply allegedly controlled almost entirely by a small number of addresses, fee extortion and sniping. Welch publicly denied any insider trading activity on behalf of her team or any affiliated key opinion leaders (KOLs). “Team hasn’t sold one token and not 1 KOL was given 1 free token,” she said in a Dec. 5 X post. “We tried to stop snipers as best we could through high fees in the start of launch on Meteora.” However, aggregated data from Dexscreener and Solana block explorer Solscan shows a string of more than 80 wallet addresses that had not purchased the token — suggesting they were allocated tokens before the launch — all of which sold their HAWK holdings for between $10,000 and $365,000 in profits. MEME coins will continue to be the sewer of cryptocurrencies. "Hawk Tuah" link: https://lnkd.in/gfh8c-uZ #crypto #memecoins

22

18 Comments

This is just incredible. Neal Ghosh's demonstration of how #VentureIQ takes deeply technical and complicated content across a range of industrial use cases and ages/stages through an AI-generated conversational podcast (a la #notebookLM) is really mind-blowing. Check out his post, below, and if you haven't seen VentureIQ, yet, let's get you set up to learn more. You can visit VentureIQ.ai or DM any of us over here to book a demo!

2

Exciting to see startups aiming to use AI to discover chemicals, materials, drugs, etc. Semi companies have taken notice: AMD is investing in and Cadence is acquiring them. Semi/EDA companies have broken out by becoming critical path, whether it’s through critical software, packaging, IP, design kits from foundries, or user communities. Aside from just making it easy to make new materials, these “AI for making X” companies also need to articulate a vision as to how they can establish monopolistic positions in their industries.

144

5 Comments

Tiger Research Inc. Report on MANTRA TL;DR - The Real World Asset (RWA) market is growing rapidly, with predictions of reaching US$16 trillion by 2030, but faces regulatory challenges that need to be addressed to achieve full market potential. - MANTRA is pioneering compliance and innovation in RWA tokenization by implementing regulatory mechanisms at the protocol level through MANTRA Chain with its 'MANTRA compliance' feature. - MANTRA is actively building its ecosystem through self-developed platforms, strategic partnerships, and a US$500 million asset tokenization deal with MAG Group, positioning itself to potentially set the standard in the RWA market. Shorooq Partners https://lnkd.in/dG-px-ba

44

2 Comments

📈 Top Public AI Stocks for April 2024 - ClearOne Inc. (CLRO): A company specializing in audio, video, and web conferencing applications. Their AI configuration and control software, Console, is gaining attention. 🎙️💻 - B.O.S. Better Online Solutions (BOSC): Focused on supply chain and inventory solutions, BOSC’s Intelligent Robotics division incorporates AI technology. 🤖📦 - Opera Ltd. (OPRA): Known for designing web browsers, Opera has integrated ChatGPT and free VPN functionality into its browsers. 🌐🔒 Remember to consider your investment strategy based on value, growth, and momentum! 💡📊 #AI #Investing https://lnkd.in/gPWFe4PF

8

Defense tech isn’t overhyped. What’s overhyped are tentative, minuscule Pentagon programs to adopt real innovation (totaling a few $b trickled out over years) versus the tens of billion$ *per sector* the PRC alone is investing *yearly* in disruptive/“leap ahead” defense and dual use tech to thoroughly punk the US. The bitter joke among many defense innovators is that the Pentagon will procure new tech about 10-15 years after it loses a war, loses American defense primacy, loses trillions of dollars, and loses thousands of lives — and *maybe not even then.* Adoption of cost-effective and battlefield effective tech should be a promotion condition for officers, and sabotage of this adoption should result in instant firing for Pentagon civilian staff. Congress needs to massively change incentives and budgets now, before it’s too late.

27

Especially inspired by 2 themes mentioned by Greg Kidd! My highlights: 1) Using Blockchain to create an incentive for people being good and build a reputation for not being a fraud, because why do you want to announce to the entire world on a distributed ledger that you are a fraud and been a bad actor. That's how you can "make money laundering not pay" for a bad actor. 2) Using AI to police that since AI is really good at being a "Boy Scout at scale".. "they don't have to be perfect they just have to be better than humans and it's a highly repetitive task... AI has no problem with big amounts of data and remembering who's been good and who's been not".

10

🇯🇵 #WebX, one of Asia's largest tech conferences, spotlights the Web3 innovation in Japan. Having lived, worked and invested in Tokyo, I view Japan as a fascinating sneak peek into the future of our digital consumer experiences. Their public and private sector collaboration validates the national tech policy towards an embrace of digital assets that stand to drive inclusive economic growth. #Japan is leapfrogging into #Web3, as it upgrades its digital economy from its base of consumer electronic and gaming capabilities. With companies like Sony and Nintendo and iconic IPs such as Pokémon and Super Mario, the public and private sectors in Japan have embraced the next generation consumer internet experiences afforded by tokens and blockchain. In Japan, Prime Minister Kishida’s administration is making Web3 a national priority, integrating it into national digital transformation strategies. Japan has historically led with early regulations, such as recognizing Bitcoin in 2016 and creating the world’s first crypto exchange license in 2017. Today, the focus is on moving from policy to public and private sector action. Tax reforms are critical, as high taxes have discouraged both businesses and individuals from fully participating in the web3 space. The government is working to change this, aiming to make Japan more competitive on the global stage. Japan’s centralized approach to regulation, led by the Financial Services Agency, Japan (JFSA, 金融庁) and the Web3 Policy Office, is unique and could offer a more integrated path forward compared to the fragmented model seen in the United States. For more trends and insights, there's a wonderful overview of Web3 in Japan, from Maria Chak, Cathleen Lyu, and Aleksandra Nik: https://lnkd.in/eC9BQJjK

16

4 Comments

Part of the DPI squeeze visualized: Fewer tech IPOs in 2022-2024 than during both the post dot-com bubble (2001-2002) and the financial crisis (2008-2009). Various reasons for this - more private capital, prohibitive regulations, too lofty valuations, etc. - but the end result is fewer exits via public markets. The IPO window is still pretty closed. 🪟 via Coatue.

235

14 Comments

record time to DPI. invested in a fund-of-funds (FoFs) and DPI <45 days later. 2025 should be a good year for DPI for whole ecosystem. DMs open to QPs if want name of FoF. my hot take -- FoFs are way better mechanism for most folks to access venture. You do sacrifice some returns via fee on fees + diversifying away alpha, but that is compensated for by reduced volatility. Also, it's superior to alternatives of (1) allocating to mega VCs which as a function of size will struggle to deliver historic venture style returns or (2) spending a ton of time meeting emerging managers and ending up pretty concentrated. If you appropriately value your time spent sourcing a FoF fees look cheap. not investment advice. don't get anything from them, just think they are good which is why invested.

85

14 Comments

#ICYMI Why have all of the major tech firms opted for utterly immoral business models? Because, under current regulatory conditions, that is what pays. https://lnkd.in/gmN8NjZ via Project Syndicate #AutonomousRevolution #SocialPhaseChange #DigitalRevolution #DigitalTransformation

11

7 Tech Trends will shape 2025: ⬇ ⬇ ⬇ ✅ Crypto (easy value transfer, value storage, volatility is a feature) ✅ AI (we need it to accomplish great things) ✅ Quantum + AI (the most important challenges require quantum computation) ✅ Robots (so we can focus on more important things) ✅ Longevity biotech (largest market in the world - all people) ✅ Fusion power (because software consumes a lot of energy) ✅ Fundamental science - physics breakthroughs, it's been awhile.

50

2 Comments